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JUAN PABLO VILLAMARIN ON INTERCONTINENTAL'S 2020 MARKET REVIEW AND 2021 OUTLOOK (VIDEO)


As we turn the page over for what has been one of the most challenging years for the human population as a whole, we want to take the opportunity to sincerely thank all of our clients for the trust and partnership they have bestowed upon us over the years. We mourn with all of you the human and financial hardship that this pandemic has caused many individuals and families around the world, and we welcome and hope for a quick transition to post-COVID life.

Although the battle against COVID-19 is far from over, and we are currently facing an escalation of restrictions worldwide as a consequence of the strong rise in cases and hospitalizations, the end of the storm is now more visible. National health associations have approved more than three vaccines, more than 25 million vaccines have been administered in 42 countries as of January 8, developed country governments have unanimously embraced fiscal stimulus against the crisis, and economic activity has rebounded from the Q2 trough. Although the damage of the pandemic will linger for many months in the future as measured by employment loss, GDP decreases, and foregone investment, human and therefore economic activity will normalize, and it is clear stock markets have reflected this gradual stabilization.

Before we embark on our customary technical analysis of the economic and financial pulse of the main world regions, we see this market commentary as an opportune time to share some of the lessons our team has learned throughout the past 9 months. The following lessons have shaped most of our investment views and therefore explain our current operational framework for analyzing future macro events:

  1. Uncertain times require a deeper review of fundamentals
  2. Uncertain times require bold calls
  3. Flexibility is essential for survival
  4. Extreme sentiment paradoxically signals instability
  5. Shocks accelerate changes

Read more about these lessons, our 2020 market review and 2021 outlook for the main world regions, as well as investment implications by clicking here to read the full report.