As global investment advisors, we work with a variety of managers in our portfolio construction process. Therefore, we launched a new webinar series called "Meet the Manager", with the goal of introducing you to the various portfolio managers and funds we partner with.
The fifth webinar in the series took place on Wednesday, September 29, 2021 and introduced the experts at Alpine Macro, discussing the Post-Emergency Covid Global Investment Order.
The world economic environment is finally evolving past the reactionary emergency framework adopted against the pandemic. Although the evolution of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is still the single most critical determinant of global economic development in the medium term, many nations are starting to think about the economic order post the pandemic and shaping their policies accordingly. The task however is not easy considering the distribution of future economic scenarios is large and it is difficult to predict how economic agents will react as fiscal and monetary emergency support waves off even when the pandemic is still alive. Although structural inflation is still a popular risk and often the main argument used to justify the deceleration of fiscal and monetary support, the fear of deflation and low real economic growth has gradually started to gain prominence across technocrat discourse. A few factors are clear: fiscal stimuli is decreasing substantially across the globe, real rates continue to be very depressed in developed nations, and valuations across risk assets are high relative to history.
Watch this recording of our discussion with Harvinder Kalirai, Chief Fixed Income and Currency Strategist at Alpine Macro, about the macro dynamics in Phase II of the global economy post the SARS-CoV-2 shock.